SARS-CoV-99 Outbreak Simulation

Day 1

Case Identification

Day 2

Model Selection

Day 3

Resource Planning

Day 1 - December 1: Initial Outbreak

New!

Situation Briefing

Emerging outbreak of SARS-CoV-99 in Heung Shing with following characteristics:

Transmission: Respiratory droplets
Incubation: 1 day infectious period
Key Symptoms: Fever Dyspnea Cough

Patient A (Day 4)

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Patient B (Day 3)

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Data Requirements Analysis

Critical data needed for resource allocation:

Day 2 - December 2: Modeling Approach

SIR Model

Basic Structure:

S → I → R
Parameters:
- β (Infection rate)
- γ (Recovery rate)

SEIR Model

Enhanced Structure:

S → E → I → R
Parameters:
- β (Infection rate)
- σ (Incubation rate)
- γ (Recovery rate)

Model Selection Exercise

Given R₀ = 5 and early infectious period:

Day 3 - December 3: Resource Projection

Decision Tree Modeling

SIR Model Parameters
├─ R₀ = 5
├─ Early Transmission Window
└─ Health Economics Factors
   ├─ Isolation Bed Demand
   │  ├─ Current: 1,200
   │  └─ Projected: ?
   └─ ICU Bed Demand
      ├─ Current: 300
      └─ Projected: ?

Principal investigator: Prof. MING Wai-kit (PH) Co-I: Prof. Ibrahim ELSOHABY (PH) , Prof. Jinfeng XU (BIOS), Prof YUAN, H. Y. Sean (BMS), Mr. CHAN Sze Chai (PH), Mr. Mohnish Richard SHAH (PH)